Behind the Numbers – Howard Ashton Semis.
Behind the Numbers – Howard Ashton Semis.
The Howard Ashton series is one of the main features on the South Australian racing calendar and the age-restricted Group 3 series brought a deep group of chasers through the six heats last week.
With three semi-finals this Thursday night, we look at the Isolynx data from the heats to preview the semis and look at who might advance to the final next week.
Semi Final 1
The first semi-final sees one of the favourites for the series in Yoda Lady step out after producing a 30.60 run which was the fastest qualifying time across the six heats. Having now won four straight races over the 530m trip at Angle Park, the heat victory was just a length outside of her personal best of 30.52. The strong overall performance didn’t feature any extraordinary splits but a strong overall performance which will make it hard to beat in the semi-final.
Springvale Grace progressed through the same heat as Yoda Lady running in fourth from a wide box draw. The first split was a 5.28 which is the second fastest time of the runners in this heat and just one hundredth of a second behind Yoda Lady and a similar beginning will be much more favourable from the inside draw. Peace Belle is also a speedy beginner and another runner with a 5.28 first split but will have to be at its best to cross the field from box eight.
While the early speed isn’t as prevalent in semi-final one, there are plenty of strong run-on types including Keep it Zipped and Southern Sun.
Keep It Zipped flew home late in heat three last week with sections of 2.91, 2.95 and 3.00 in the final 150 metres of the race and shows that it will be hitting the line strongly as weill Southern Sun who nearly chased down Zinfandel Evie in running final sections of 2.92, 2.96 and 3.02.
Selections – 6.1.4.5
Its hard to go past YODA LADY for Lauren Harris as the winner in this race. I don’t think she will face a ton of pressure for the early lead and her back straight sectionals were impressive, and I think she will have too much speed. SPRINGVALE GRACE will get a better run from box one and will be fitter for the run last week. Having to work less from the inside draw, I think she can also be in the finish. I think the run on pair of SOUTHERN SUN and KEEP IT ZIPPED round out the first four while there is also another watch on TAPPET, who was well supported last week in the heat at just its second race start.
Semi Final 2
This semi-final maps as being all about the need for speed with four of the faster first splits in the series landing in the final. There is no one who shows more early speed than Zinfandel Evie who was electric last week in producing a 5.14 first section from box eight. She will need to produce something similar to find the lead again in this semi-final having drawn the pink again and faces more speed in this heat.
Blossom Michelle produced a 5.28 first section from box two and has gone as quick as 5.19 in her first section previously. Play In Reign is from a litter of notoriously quick beginners and her 5.21 from the pink last week was excellent and a box three draw in the semi-final will be more advantageous.
Merindah City was first up last week in race conditions after winning the prelude in March] and will be better for the run but produced an excellent run starting quickly with a 5.24 first split.
All the speed in this race will not make things easy for Zinfandel Evie and it shapes to be a hot battle to the first turn between those four chasers.
If the speedsters are working too hard early, it sets up nicely for a run-on dog to put themselves into the race with Kisses For Amy set to feature prominently after running home with final sections of 2.99 (400m), 3.04 (450m) and 3.05 (500m) to power home and win her heat.
Another chaser who ran on well in her heat was Victa Val with the Ron Schadow chaser producing strong final sections as well to finish in fourth and make the final.
The strong final sections of 2.97 (400m), 2.97 (450m) and 3.02(500m) was extremely impressive and stacks up well among the best run homes right across the six heats last week.
Selections – 4, 8. 5. 6
Tipping a bit of an upset here in taking VICTA VAL to take out the second semi-final. I think with the speed battle set to be on early, I think the leaders will have to work hard and it sets up nicely for a strong run-on dog which is where VICTA VAL shines. ZINFANDEL EVIE in for second, she is arguably the highest quality runner in the series, if she can show her speed and find the front despite a hot field she will take some beating. KISSES FOR AMY is a high-quality chaser and will be strong to the line. MERINDAH CITY won the prelude in March and has plenty of ability, he will be fitter for the run and should hit the line stronger than in the heat.
Semi Final 3
Another fantastic semi-final awaits, and the in-form Jukebox Duke for Tony Hinrichsen looks like one of the key chances having drawn nicely in box one once again. The 5.28 first split produced last week from the red box should have him in the lead again here. The big query will be the final splits with the final 100m sections of 3.05 (450m) and 3.11 (500m) which were among the slowest in his heat and may leave Jukebox Duke open to being run down.
The main chaser will be Victa Chrissy who was strong to the line behind Jukebox Duke in the heat last week with 3.00 (450m) and 2.99(500m) seeing Victa Chrissy two lengths on Jukebox Duke late. Victa Chrissy’s beginning remains a query with a 5.42 first section among the slower times in the heat but she has gone 5.35 before and such a beginning will have her in the finish.
Winnie McGoogan is a chaser with ability who likes to be wide on the track and the box five draw will make it easier to get room. Despite drawing box two last week, Winnie McGoogan had an average distance from the running rail of 2.26m which is among the furthest across the three semi-finals.
Spontaneous produced a very even performance in his heat to win in 30.70 but will be disadvantaged by the wide box eight draw. Spontaneous had an average distance from the rail of 1.58m from a box two draw and that is similar to the 1.68m distance from the prelude in April. He is not the quickest away and may need some luck to find position in the race.
Just Alfie is an interesting runner who ran third in the heat behind Zinfandel Evie and Southern Sun. While Southern Sun looked the eye-catching run, Just Alfie made excellent ground as well with 2.95 (400m), 2,97 (450m) and 2.98(500m) to hit the line strongly. His beginning is his week point, with the 5.52 beginning leaving him well behind the pack at the start.
Selections – 3, 1, 8, 5.
VICTA CHRISSY maps to get a nice run from box three and settling just behind the early speed of JUKEBOX DUKE who I have in for second. The strength of Victa Chrissy is the key and I think she can prove too strong for Jukebox Duke over the closing stages. The inside pair will also get some cover from Winnie McGoogan who will look to shift wide.
SPONTANEOUS is a high-quality chaser and I have it in for third. He will need some luck to find a position but could get that if he can avoid Winnie McGoogan early.