Behind The Numbers – 20i24 Murray Bridge Cup

15/03/2024
Racing News

Behind The Numbers – 20i24 Murray Bridge Cup

A terrific field is assembled for the 2024 Group 3 Daish Irrigation and Fodder Murray Bridge Cup with a mix of interstate and local form lines merging across the six heats that were run last Tuesday night.

But what can those heats tell us about how the final will play out on Sunday night?

GRSA’s Luke Marchioro has dived into the numbers provided by the Isolynx data to analyse the heats and look at how the final might shape up.

Battle for the rail highlights early speed duel.

The box draw for Sunday’s final has made for an intriguing battle with many of the greyhounds who will be hunting the rail having drawn on the inside of the track.

After producing the fastest first 50 metre split in its heat last week with a lightning 3.53 first section which was 0.06 quicker than its nearest rival, Chapel Road appears ideally drawn once again with box two in the final.

The strong first split is more than a tenth of a second clear of several of its rivals who are drawn in the inside half of the track with Hooked on Love in box one having a 3.76 first section, Will Vanson in box three a 3.69 and Divine Nature in box with a 3.68 first 50m.

While there would be some improvement expected from these chasers especially Will Vanson who is a hard railer and is drawn much better in box three in the final than he was from box eight in the heat.

Drawn in the middle of the track, Adhana Rico and Wild Banker do possess early speed but will need a bit of luck to cross those on the inside.

GREYHOUND	50M	100M	150M
Heat One
Will Vanson (1^st) (Box 8)	3.69	2.65	2.57
Heat Two
Chapel Road (1^st) (Box 3)	3.53	2.67	2.56
Heat Three
Divine Nature (1^st) (Box 8)	3.68	2.69	2.54
Fantastic Spike (2^nd) (Box 6)	3.81	2.66	2.55
Heat Four
Adhana Rico (1^st) (Box 2)	3.62	2.66	2.55
Hooked On Love (2^nd) (Box 7)	3.76	2.66	2.56
Heat Five
Federal Flash (1^st) (Box 6)	3.66	2.65	2.53
Heat Six
Wild Banker (1^st) (Box 8)	3.59	2.63	2.52

Middle section which might (one) turn the race

The middle section of the race around the Murray Bridge one-turn can prove pivotal in any race and the final on Sunday night is no exception.

Of the eight qualifiers, the experienced Adhana Rico produced some of the fastest middle sections which helped anchor his overall time of 25.51 which was the fastest of any of the six heats.

Adhana Rico’s strong middle sections helped him open a winning advantage and while he tired slightly in the run home, he was still able to hit the line well.

Coming off a six-week layoff, Adhana Rico will be better for the run and if he can reproduce his best sectionals, he will loom as one of the key chances in the final.

Another runner with solid middle sections was the Dave Peckham-trained Federal Flash, who made it five straight wins at Murray Bridge with an impressive victory In heat five.

Federal Flash’s 200m sectional of 2.59 was the fastest of the eight qualifiers and is a dog which has an affinity for the track and strong sections like this could have Federal Flash firmly in the finish/

GREYHOUND	200M	250M	300M
Heat One
Will Vanson (1^st) (Box 8)	2.61	2.70	2.73
Heat Two
Chapel Road (1^st) (Box 3)	2.63	2.69	2.74
Heat Three
Divine Nature (1^st) (Box 8)	2.66	2.73	2.72
Fantastic Spike (2^nd) (Box 6)	2.65	2.70	2.73
Heat Four
Adhana Rico (1^st) (Box 2)	2.60	2.67	2.72
Hooked On Love (2^nd) (Box 7)	2.65	2.78	2.71
Heat Five
Federal Flash (1^st) (Box 6)	2.59	2.70	2.76
Heat Six
Wild Banker (1^st) (Box 8)	2.62	2.69	2.74

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Testing straight for fast finishers

The two fastest finishing sections both came from the same heat with Divine Nature and Fantastic Spike both hitting the line very strongly.

The sections for those two chasers were close to a tenth of a second quicker than most of their rivals and may the pair of greyhounds may loom large in the finish if they can be close to the early leaders.

The strong finishes didn’t quite extend to other heats but there is expected to be improvement especially from chasers such as Adhana Rico and Chapel Road who will be second up off extended breaks.

GREYHOUND	350M	400M	450M
Heat One
Will Vanson (1^st) (Box 8)	2.79	2.86	2.91
Heat Two
Chapel Road (1^st) (Box 3)	2.80	2.80	2.82
Heat Three
Divine Nature (1^st) (Box 8)	2.78	2.74	2.75
Fantastic Spike (2^nd) (Box 6)	2.78	2.73	2.76
Heat Four
Adhana Rico (1^st) (Box 2)	2.77	2.79	2.81
Hooked On Love (2^nd) (Box 7)	2.76	2.76	2.78
Heat Five
Federal Flash (1^st) (Box 6)	2.81	2.80	2.84
Heat Six
Wild Banker (1^st) (Box 8)	2.79	2.81	2.85

Selections – 2, 4, 5,7

This is a wide-open race with several winning chances and shapes as a Group 3 final of the highest quality. I have Chapel Road on top for trainer Kiah Hurley, with no speed on its inside in box one if it can match its early speed from the heats, it will find the lead and be hard to run down.

Divine Nature will be strong in the finish of the race and if it can improve its jump from the boxes it will be able to get across into a nice spot behind Chapel Road. Adhana Rico is a high-quality chaser and will be better for the run in the heats and is another who could settle into a nice spot behind Chapel Road. I have Fantastic Spike in for fourth with the wide draw suiting and I think it can avoid any potential trouble to the first turn and be powering home s